Nik’s blog

This was originally posted at Future Thoughts.

This is one of the most startling charts I've seen in a while. It seems to drive home a few points that will be central to the next few years. Firstly, it is worth remembering the sheer numbers of young people in India (way more than in China, thanks to the one child policy). By 2050 there will be more graduates in India than in Europe and the US put together. Almost a third of all graduates in the world will be Indian. The beginnings of that dominance are evident now, as the chart shows.

I've written previously about the impact of generational change in the West. At Future Foundation, we have long noted the 'ageless society' alongside the ageing one. The cultural gaps between generations are waning, at least in the West. Here, the Sixties and the baby boom generation saw a massive break in cultural values from their parents’ generation that had fought the war. Ever since, subsequent cohorts have basically reproduced the behaviour patterns of the sixties generation (rebellion, liberation etc). Now we have the baby boomers approaching retirement, with many still taking drugs, being promiscuous and playing computer games (to take three random examples of supposedly youthful behaviour). Even the majority who do not do these things have a more relaxed attitude to them than previous generations. Basically, their values are not too dissimilar to those of their children, and the west has settled into a new equilibrium of values necessitated by the move to a consumer society and the economics of plenty (how this is now changing is moot for this post).

The interesting question is what happens to the generations now graduating in ‘emerging markets’. In many ways, they are like the baby boomers of their time – suddenly freed from the existential worries of their parents, with a world of opportunity available to them. Do they follow the same path as the western boomers? Or do their distinct cultural hinterlands lead them in distinctive directions? I'm presuming in favour of the latter, but this will vary enormously across different markets. Either way, it's sure to be a central issue when thinking about long-term cultural shifts.