Nik’s blog

Wikileaky

I'm finding the whole thing endlessly fascinating. As usual, Marginal Revolution has an interesting take on the matter. I may be optimistic, but Tyler's conclusions about the effects of Wikileaks on autocracies seem to ring truer than its effects on democracies. Perhaps it is likely that certain sections of the US public become more hawkish as a result of revelations about Iran and China, for example, but there are strong mitigating factors:

• War-weariness. In Britain, at least, there is no appetite for going to war against Iran. In the context of cuts to defence spending and continued massive public antipathy even to the war in Afghanistan, British adventurism is perhaps at an all-time low. If America were to start looking for allies outside of the Middle East, it would find it difficult. I'm no expert on US public opinion, but I imagine that if war with Iran were a more realistic prospect, resistance would come out of the woodwork.
• What these cables also make clear is the reasons behind administration reluctance to go to war. Gates is a hugely respected individual, and while publicising his thinking may have the effect of reducing deterrence to Iran, it does have the advantage that his specific argument is made clear to hawks who must then argue on his ground. Perhaps this is over-optimistic, but I hope not.

Overall, the whole episode reminds me of the planet in the Hitchhikers Guide who were all suddenly punished with the gift of telepathy. For a while, it was great, but then they all realised that the bad things they thought about each other could also not be hidden. As a defence mechanism, they were forced to begin wittering inanely, non-stop, about the weather so that nothing more complex and potentially offensive could enter their heads and be seen by others. It gives me hope to see the UN general assembly and all diplomacy between countries move towards this model. After all, diplomats, spies and generals doing nothing is perhaps better than the situation we currently have.